Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

2/4/16

/ES day range 1870 - 1910. Sell 1910 swing.

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

2/3/16

/ES day range 1890 to 1917.

Sell 1915 swing.

2/2/2016

Tuesday /ES Range is 1890 - 1925.

Buy 1900 swing. Sell 1925 day.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Monday, 2/1/2016

/ES Daily Range - 1915 - 1950

sell 1936 (day), 1946 (day), and then 1949 (day)

Buy 1915 (day) and 1900 (swing).

Friday, November 29, 2013

Roadmap

We are nearing a minor, ST top in the market, which may have come today, or will come on Monday, December 2, around SPX 1820.

After this top, NFLX should come down to 350, RUT to 1120 to 1130, AAPL to 540-545. This will be a buying opportunity. SPX 1785 would be a gift.

After the bottom, NFLX is going to 400 (or thereabouts), and RUT to 1160, SPX to 1900-1910, and AAPL to 565-570. At that point, we should have a major top.

I am short NFLX (at around $364.5) and AAPL ($456) via puts. I plan to cover at the above-mentioned targets and go lightly long.

Saturday, August 31, 2013

Short IWM and GDX since 1050 Russell, 29.7 GDX.

First targets 980 Russell and 26.5 - 27 on GDX.

I plan to go long AAPL at 475-484.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

PMs Not Acting Well

I will get out of PM longs within a day or so and consider shorting.

Looking at the weekly chart, the current multiple-week advance in miners looks like a bear flag.

Monday, January 21, 2013

LT view

The SPX is in the beginning stages of a medium-term advance.

I know this must sound totally weird, as many people think that we are toward the end of long bull market advance, that began in March 2009.

However, the breadth readings we are seeing in this advance, the fact that international markets are soaring with us (the DAX, FXI and BSE) now suggest that this advance is for real, and will, in the medium-term (6 months) probably lead to all-time highs in many markets. The RUT has already hit all time highs.

The Dow should hit 14700 and the SPX 1590 or so.

Having said that, in the short term, this advance needs a correction.

I am lightly short equities (with SOX) and long PMs (NUGT).  I will also try to short via FAZ tomorrow.  I am looking for a drop, ideally to around 1430 SPX to go long again. Hopefully we won't go lower than that.

I am also looking for a small correction to go long Silver via AGQ. This would be an intermediate term long, based upon a bull flag on the MONTHLY chart.

Happy new year!

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Cautiously long PMs

I know, I know, I said PMs were F-ed. But price action is king. What do I know.

We'll wait and watch.

Also, I am going long the Qs during this consolidation. I will be looking for a top in the SP 1480 - 1520 range.

Sold all SCTY at 15.75. 

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Trade Update


Update: Will sell DUST today. Bought at 33.7. Will try to sell around 35.2. Strong, potential, positive MACD divergence on GDX and some miners - AUY, GG, SIL.

I'm currently looking for a tradable ST top to go swing short equities.