Long-term fundamentals aside, I am actually shorting oil, on a technical and fundamental basis, for a short-term swing trade. Tomorrow or Friday morning we might get a double top in WTIC: a nice little place to begin a short position.
Equities may rise for a week or so, and then follow oil. It's very interesting to watch the daily play-off between oil and equities with one eye to the summer ahead. Fundamentally, in the short-run, I believe both will go down; however, to a large extent they behave inversely, so the first part of the fall will be fun to watch.
Here's my bet: I think Oil will go first, equities will get a slight bump, and then follow. Oil and large caps will begin a recovery in the second half of the summer.
