Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Party!!!

Long QID as of this morning at 9:50 a.m. Am looking to SPX to come close to 1200 to 1210 today or Monday, when I plan to go long. I think we will get a 38.2% or probably 50% retrace this mega move up (1135 to 1265), but we are now in either an intermediate term (1-2 month) bear market rally or the start of a bull market. A 50% retrace of yesterday and today's move would put us at 1200, which has been a previous bottom, which is my bet for the end of this move down.