Sold AAPL Calls

Expect 1100 on the SPX before further fall.

Will sell some SLV on Monday; Watching SLV carefully. Gold looks like it could fall to 1135.

Expect to buy AAPL around 225 or so.

Bought AAPL (241.6) , SLV (17.3) July calls here.

Sold all EURUSD, GBPUSD longs at 1.252 and 1.455 respectively;

Will not be posting all trades from now. Too much work.

Lessons from this Mini Crash

1. The more overbought we get, the harder we can crash.

2. Bottoms usually come in spikes. Look for a spike bottom to buy.

3. Futures are not good for buy and hold.

(This last one may seem stupid, but the point is that futures are not good if even some downside is possible.)

4. SOX and Bonds are great tells for the future.

Long EURUSD at 1.234; Long GBPUSD at 1.425

EURUSD target 1.256.

Outlook

Copper looks like its bottoming.

USD looks like its topping. Ideally we would get another high with divergences on the daily charts.

Equity PC ratio is highest since July '09.

5 MA of Equity PC ratio is pretty close to a bottom.

5 MA of TRIN is indicating a bottom is very close.

NYHL and NYMO are bottoming and have a divergence.

I am thinking of going long SLV big time. With July calls, not futures.

And EURUSD.

Morning Update: Actually, Silver may go down to 17.5 before a bounce. Gold is still falling.

No fear. More downside needed for real bottom?

Sold all EURUSD longs

At 1.232 and 1.239 for a small profit. Bought these at average price of 1.232.

Looking for opportunity to buy EURO on a lower RSI bottom on the daily charts.

Bought SLV June 19 calls at SLV 17.82

Wednesday Plan

1. Buy SLV June or July Calls. Target $20.00.

Market Overview

1. USD index appears to be at a ST top at 87.3 or so. It should fall to 85.4 or so, followed by another top should come around 87.3 - 87.5. This top should show divergences on daily RSI.

2. This should correspond with the EURO approximately as such: 1.2240 -- 1.2510 -- 1.2130.

3. Then EURO could rally for the rest of the summer to 1.3 or so.

4. SPX Most charts indicate a bounce is coming.

1120 - 1150 - 1135 - 1270?

Post on Carl Futia's Site

Note the huge discrepancy between TICK and price in the last 10 minutes. Here's a chart: http://tinyurl.com/29l66em SPX is in green. This happens when a few stocks that comprise a large part of the index are sold heavily. This is quite easy to do, and drives fear into the market, brings the narrower indices down. This will increase volatility, lots of people will buy Puts, which will be shorted. You could also look at the difference between the RUT and SPX in the last 5 minutes, and it would show you the same thing. Note the ending dip in the SPX and how you don't see it in the RUT? Options Opex is next Friday.

Very Short-term Outlook

1. AAPL 163.5 - 155 - up.

2. Gold 1145 - 1128 - up.

3. SPX 1175 - 1160 - up.

4. Silver - harder to say - maybe down to 19.35? then up?

I will try to buy Silver, Gold, AAPL and SOX.

Shopping List

Will buy what I can of these:

Gold at 1210 (missed!)

SOX at 39.7

AAPL at 255.

ST Outlook

1. I expect that U.S. indices will ST top at 1168 - 1170 or so on the SPX, and fall to 1140 - 1150 or so, from where we will launch another wave up. I will try to go long again at 1150 or so.

2. EURUSD could fall to 1.276 or so, fill the gap and then move up.

3. Gold could fall to 1181 or so before going up again. It may make new highs on this move.

AAPL, SOX are good longs.

Update

5 DMA of TRIN and PC ratio are indicating a big bounce could come any time. Perhaps from 1140 ES?

Long BGZ or SOXL?

Bull Market Update - U.S. Indices

1. I am long, as mentioned earlier, and will exit today and monitor.

2. There is a good chance (70% in my opinion) that the bull market will continue to 1280-1300 SPX. Because I give that greater than 70% odds, that is the way I will play it.

3. I will reassess my bullish bias if we drop below 1130 SPX on a closing basis.

4. I am looking at SOX, AAPL and PMs for longs.

5. This may be a good long-term entry point for a part position in the China, Brazil and U.S. indices.

Bull Market Update - U.S. Indices

1. Don't know if this is an intermediate term sell off or a short-term sell off.

2. Expecting a bounce in the short-term.

3. Long for the bounce.

4. Will get out at AAPL 250 or thereabouts, SPX 1140. Then I will wait and see.

Great Post, Reminds me of Will Rahal's Work

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/05/06/stocks-over-discount-economic-recovery/

Trade Update

Long AAPL July Call spread at AAPL 234; long EURUSD at 1.2650; long GBPUSD at 1.472.

1. Call Spread because of IV crash. I expect VIX to drop, which will affect my 230 call, but hopefully it will affect the 250 call more.

2. Long AAPL because of my premise that either

a) we get big bounce in the next few days, or
b) the bull market continues. I suspect b). I don't think we've seen all the greed come out yet.

One of the above has to happen, IMO.

If I am wrong, the 250 calls protect me on the downside.

But, obviously, I don't think I'm wrong.

AAPL is the only one I expect to hold (perhaps for more than 1 month). The currencies are for the next 1-3 days

Nice Opportunity to Go Short U.S. Bonds Long-term

What the heading says. Go short bonds or long interest rate futures if you can - over the next few days.

Out of AAPL

Don't like price action.

It was following, not leading the market.

Going down to 240?

Awesome Post by Carl Futia

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/2010/05/breakout-or-shakeout.html

It addresses:

1. How long do bull markets last after advancing issues peak?

2. What can be expected when there is a breakout from an area of congestion -- a place where the market has spent a long time.

Thursday and the Future

Went long AAPL at 250 and change today. Went long more SLV.

1. Market's going up.

2. Divergences in NASD up down issues and up down volume; Gold etc. SLV will rise by Friday.

3. NYHL and NYMO are at levels indicating bottoms. 9 DMA of NYTV is similar.

4. We should get at least a bounce. Then we'll have to decide if it's just a bounce or a new up trend.

5. But TICK indicates that we may get a lower low tomorrow before a bounce. Possible 1148 on the SPX?

6. Also no climactic volume today indicates no bottom yet. Finally H&S resolution is 1140 ES.

7. Then, in my opinion, NDX is going to 2000, and possibly to 2050.

8. So, on the SPX, in order 1175, 1148, 1200?

Gold miners are doing great. Indicating Gold will jump.

Keep checking TNX. Important support.

Will sell SLV calls and some AAPL tomorrow (Thursday).

After this rise, start looking at LT Puts.

Lessons from this Mini Crash

1. Look at the NYA. That is the most important index. Trust it.

2. Trust what you see in the other indices. Europe, China, Brazil and India.

3. Silver is very weak in down trends.

4. The middle of a down trend is just the right time to buy Puts or sell Calls for protection. No, it is NOT too late.

Wednesday Plan

1. Short GS at 152.5

2. Short SPY until AAPL closes 250 gap.

3. Long AAPL at 250.

Why Short the Indices?

When you can short weak stocks (or weak foreign indices)?

Don't struggle to anticipate a trend. There are lots of confirmed trends all over the world. Just find them. Use the 5 MA system or your other systems.

If you're not very sure about a direction for U.S. Indices, buying SPX puts may be riskier than other options.

Short AUDUSD spike on Interest Rate decision?

Just an idea.

Think about it.

Feels Like a Wave 4

The choppiness here, feels like a Wave 4. It may just be Wave 4 of the entire ascent from March 9, with Wave 5 to come.

Plan for Next Week

1. The U.S. indices are broken. I will look for a retrace to short with SPY Puts. Look at the big red candles on the daily. We could go down to 1110 or so in 2 weeks. First stop would be the 50 Day SMA at 165 or so. Look at the Copper chart for one. NYA down volume is indicating a correction. BSE (Bombay) is lining up for a classic 5 DMA short. BVSP (Brazil) is badly broken and so is Shanghai.

Basically, I am looking for 1-3 days of consolidation in the indices, with a range of 1175 to 1200, and then a fall apart. PC ratio spiked on Friday and 5 DMA of TRIN is also indicating a bounce. However, at this point (as indicated earlier), I think the bounce should be shorted. Silver and Gold should do what they can in the next week, after which it may be too late. I don't see Gold going much over 1225 (previous high) on this move.

2. Will hold Silver on a tight leash and expect to sell it within the next 2-4 days. Ideally, indices would go mildly higher in the next 2-3 days and Silver would rocket to 19.5 or so. If U.S. indices collapse to 1110, Silver cannot hold out. Fall/late summer may be the next time to buy PMs.

3. AUDUSD bull flag failure indicates that it may fall to long-term lower trend line. Holding a small long for now, but divided on this. Long-term, I am an AUDUSD bull. Short-term (2-3 days) I'm not sure. May cut it loose. Will update over the weekend.

4. EURUSD: looking for at least 1.3380 to short. The USD chart looks like it could be setting up for a nice, swing long, perhaps as a sell the news reaction when the Greek bailout news comes out.