Win's Way: March 2011

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

TSL, FSLR

TSL at 26 and FSLR at 147.5 are top buys. TSL target is 48 in 1 month.

I am quite sure about these. Technically and globally, this is a top setup.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Sold TSL

Sold TSL at 27.88 - top of range. Will buy again at 27.1. This is a top buy.

Will sell SOXL if I get 52 today. Will buy again.

SOXL, TSL,

Bought SOXL at 47.5, ST target 53.

Bought TSL at 27.1. This is MT buy. Target is $47-48.

Monday, March 14, 2011

SLV, AGQ, SOX, URANIUM, UNG

Silver and Gold look like they're setting up for big shorting opportunities. Judging from the GDX chart at least. Silver is a short at 38.

SOX should go down to 410 at least. SOXS was a buy today at 61.7, but I didn't pull the trigger - work reasons. I may buy tomorrow at around 62 or 63.

I will buy SOXL in the 47.0 to 48 range.

Uranium stocks may have bottomed today, and this is a MT buying opportunity.

Bought UNG today at 10.57. ST target is 11.00. Will get out then and reassess. This is also a LT buy, according to the chart.

Correction should take us to SPX 1280 before a bounce.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

TLT at 90-91 range is a buy.

1. May buy TLT calls or TBT Puts at HOD today or tomorrow.

91 is buy zone. Not 90.

2. RUT to 840 may be a good ST long.

Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way