Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Silver Dollar

Silver will bounce from the 40-42 zone. There is strong support there. I am expecting another run up to the $50 range, and possibly higher.

Dollar is starting an up leg, at least in the ST.


Tuesday, April 19, 2011

More Upside in Equities Likely

ST bounce in equities likely from nearby levels.

1. Out of TZA at $35.3.

2. Still in ZSL. Average price $18.15.

Update
Lowered Average ZSL price to $17.6. Now down big on this trade. Silver is parabolic, which means mean reversion is likely, which means this trade has now become a 1-3 month hold. I am at full position size, but will try to sell bounces in ZSL (and buy drops), to bring down my purchase price.

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Change of Direction

Equities are setting up for a withdrawal of liquidity, in anticipation of the end of QE 2.

FSLR and TSL recommendations are void. I should have posted this earlier, but have been very busy.

I stopped out of FSLR at 150 and plan to get out of TSL at around $29.

I am looking to buy TZA around $35-35.5. I think we will hit the Feb lows again.

ZSL would also be a good play, after a bounce in Silver. I am expecting Silver to retrace big. Will post targets after some work.

EDIT:
ZSL is a buy around 19.15- 19.30 zone.