Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Best Guess

SPX goes up to 1375 - marginal new highs - before fall. This happens around May 25.

Then we get another fall to SPX 1220-1250 or so.

I may buy a small position around SPX 1328, if we see it tomorrow. Strictly ST trade. Stop 1320.

Sold EDC, BGU, QQQ calls today.

ST Bullish; IT not sure; LT bullish

I am very short-term bullish. (3-5 days).

Beyond that, I am not sure.

Intermediate-term, I am not sure. We may need to go back to the 2007 highs on the QQQs and NDX before further upside. That is another 3-6% down.

I am long the QQQs, BGU and EDC until resistance.

I plan to short the EURO at 1.44. It may get to 1.45 or so before falling further.

Emerging markets (EDC) may be at or close to a bottom, though. Rates also, may bottom soon. Both tend to lead the SPX by a little bit.

The NDX also tends to lead the SPX.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Outlook -- Look at the NQ (NDX)!


Silver and Gold should get a good tradable bounce. GDX is at support. Will try to go long AGQ here - for a trade - at 169. If I miss it, oh well.

Short-term NQ (NDX - Nasdaq) has more to fall, but Intermediate term charts look bullish. Maybe a bounce in the next couple of days.

ES should fall to 1320 or so before bounce -- along with NQ.

Dollar may be forming a nice, tradable inverse H&S. Or it may just rise until overbought.

Watch: TSL, AGQ, EURUSD.

Best Intermediate-term trades:

1. Short EURUSD -- look at DX for levels.

2. Long NQ at support 2300 -2330 range.

3. Long AAPL at support 320-30 range?

4. Long GDX - now! at very good support!

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Equities

MT picture is now bearish.

I am looking for a bounce to short to the 1320s.

Silver - should get a shortable bounce soon.