Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Positions

1. Have been short via TZA from Tuesday (bought 45.6). Sold too early today - at 49.5.

2. Will try to buy again around 50.2 or so. Targeting 64-65 on TZA in 2 weeks. Will exit at about 1020 on the SPX (about 12% down from current levels) on the Dow.

3. Making a list of stocks to buy in two weeks (around October 12).

I am looking for doubles in 2-3 weeks from date of purchase. Looking at TSL (at $4 or $5, not sure), SOL (1.6o?), JASO ( ),... These guys are trading at 3-4 times earnings, and have 6-7 days of short covering in them. May not buy at the bottom, but will try to buy around October 12. I think these guys will double (or more) in the two weeks of earnings season.

Warning: I think many of these have another 20% downside, so I definitely am not buying now!

TSL (at $4 or $5, not sure),
SOL (1.4o?),
JASO ( ),...
ANR ($15 or so)... target $30. A coal company and I hate coal, so maybe I won't buy. :(

UPDATE 9/30:
Currently considering this allocation: TSL 25% (at $5); ANR 25% (around $15); SOXL 50% (around SOX 286 or 302).



Tuesday, September 27, 2011

update

Bullish:

$TNX is looking ST bullish.
Our business is booming.
RUT is decently strong.
Some equity valuations are dirt cheap, especially when compared to expected bond yields. Intelligent, long only managers should be buying here.


Bearish:
Today is new moon.
SSEC broke bear flag, leads SPX.
NYA and RUT both broke bear flag, look to be retracing to the line of the break.

Conclusion:

Further strength in the RUT would indicate that we are going to 1250-1260 on the ES. That would be a monster fake out for the bears.
Tomorrow will be the tell.

Monday, September 12, 2011

TNA

Will try to buy on Tuesday at 37.5 or so for a trade to 42.50.

Edit: Will try to buy between 38 and 38.5.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Actually,...

Perhaps looking to go short. Not sure. Will watch Monday's action.

Friday, September 9, 2011