Win's Way: November 2011

Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Buy America?

The following is a comment I recently made at bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com.

Something very interesting is happening on longer term /DX (dollar index) charts. Monthly MACD is making a bullish cross. Also, there is a strong, class 1, MACD divergence. A close look at a 20 year DX chart suggests strongly that the next LT (20 year) move will be a very strong up move. On the daily charts, we are at ST resistance, but a cup and handle continuation pattern should overcome this.

Unlike in the recent past, this /DX bullishness may not be bad for equities. As Brinkley has pointed out, very often currencies move in direct correlation with equities, of the same country. Jack (Springheel - channelsandpatterns.blogspot.c...), showed, in a recent post, how this positive correlation affects equities in the short-term.

To me, this suggests that longer-term, we are entering a buy America stage. I know that most of you Americans will think I am crazy for saying this, but charts don't lie. By "buy America," I don't mean buy American equities. I mean buy land or property in America, or buy the dollar. This makes sense to me on multiple levels, fundamental and technical.

Equities will probably stay in a bear market for another 1-3 years, but 2013/2014-2034 should be a super bull market in equities (akin to 1980 to 2000). The bull might even start 2012 onward, but I currently prefer the 2013-14 outlook. Regardless, we should get a major low in 2012, along with a DX high around 90. The equities observation is based upon a simple 100 year cycle analysis of major bull and bear markets.

If I am correct about this, the DX should hit 90 within a year or so (and probably much sooner). This may just happen by Spring 2012. I know that most on this blog are ST traders (as am I). However, most of us also buy and sell property and get fixed or variable interest loans. So this may be relevant.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Buy List

Buy price 1, 2; target, position size

TNA ... sell TF 770; TNA around 53.5; first target - eventual target around 60; 20%?

TSLA 31.4 ... sell 39.5; 15%

FAS 14.8; first 16.9; then 21 or 22. 40%

LEI 1.78 1.84 sell 2.25 eventual 2.50; 15%?

C 31.4 ... sell 34.2 then 38

TSL

JKS

Quotes to Live By

Write down the premise for the trade. Plain language. Nothing an 11 year old couldn't understand. TA should provide guidelines and tests for your premise... so simpy "MCP is going up" is not going to cut it... "MCP will find support along 30-31 and turn back up from there towards its 200 day" works. Now you have a written statement of validity for putting on your trade. No chance for equivication when buying or to say "well, it's broken 30 but maybe it will come back". If the premise becomes invalid, you must close your trade, even if you still think "It's going up".

- Jonny O on bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com

"Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life." -Steve Jobs

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom, must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.
~Thomas Paine

"There is a 100% chance you will be wrong at some point, and if you are 1000% invested each time, your expected future value is zero."

-- Will Rahal (The Man)

"It's my nature to 'overthink' winners and cut them loose too early, so trailing profit stops almost always kicks me out with far better profits than I otherwise would have taken. Our perception of 'what should be' in the market very often differs from 'what is so' and the difference is always money."
-- dowoper8r

We tend to understand success as a certain monetary or career achievement. Just as lasting, fulfilling satisfaction (happiness) can ultimately only come through service to others, so is success an internal state of being within immediate reach. I define it as honoring yourself and others.

So why not now already come into possession of the joy and confidence you believe will come through achievement? Then, your life will become not about striving for “success,” but expressing the success you already have."

-George Rahal

More rules/Things I have learned

1. Always meditate.

2. Use the daily charts first, then all others.

3. Always have a Plan B.

4. ALWAYS STOP OUT WITH A LOSS. -10% IS BETTER THAN -90%.

5. Time is your biggest resource. Take profits. Take losses. Get outside!

6. With futures, a bird in hand is almost always better than two in the bush. With options, wait for your target.

7. If you're anxious, you're early. If you're afraid, you probably shouldn't be in.

8. When trading equities, always sell the morning excitement! When trading anything, always sell the excitement spike!

9. Always follow your fundamental knowledge, then your charts.

10. 1 hour on; 15 minutes off.

11. When trading futures, never double down. Firm stops.

12. In Gold, watch the London trend -- 5 a.m. to 6:30 a.m. EST.

Win's Way

Lessons

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Bullish

Monday, November 28, 2011

Short term

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Buy America?

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Buy List

Lessons Learned

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