Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, December 28, 2012

WTF is up?


Bearish
1. QQQ weekly has been hugging the underside of the middle Bollinger. MACD has a huge negative divergence and about to go below zero. 

2. Bullish Percent for NYA shows huge negative divergence on weekly, monthly charts.

3. VIX is staying above the upper Bollinger.

4. SOX daily bust through the middle Bollinger and is headed for at least the lower BB.

5. Rising wedge pattern on SPX.

Bullish

1. AAPL is fundamentally cheap. Value investors should be buying right now.

2. NIKKEI is breaking out of a LT chart. May need a bit of a correction, though.

3. $RUT daily is at the middle Bollinger and at support. Dow and SPX daily very close to lower BB. QQQ just below daily BB. At least a small bounce looks probable.

4. Something should happen over the weekend to help with the fiscal cliff.

5. TLT hitting 50 DMA from the underside. Should mean at least a temporary set back.

6. $HGX - housing -- breaking out with inverse H&S. Looks very bullish.

7. AAPL daily could be at double bottom with big MACD divergence.

Conclusions:

I am bearish medium term and will trade accordingly. I will accumulate AAPL on the dips. Seems fundamentally wrong to have AAPL in the low to mid 400s, but it could happen.

Trades:
-- As planned, I sold DUST and went long NUGT today at $10.10.
-- Also, I bought SOXS.


Thursday, December 27, 2012

DUST, NUGT, STP, SCTY, TZA

1. Will try to sell STP around 1.52 - 1.55

2. GDX wants to rise. Will try to sell DUST around 34.5.  Sold part position at 37.5.
Will look to go long NUGT around 10, part position.

3. Looking to go long AGQ around SILVER at 29.

4. Will try to sell SCTY (bought at 10.6) at 11.6 or so.

5. Long TZA at 14.05.  May add at 13.9 or so. Will probably sell around 15.

6. Will go long AAPL or TQQQ in the next few days. Waiting for signal.

All trades are swing trades, unless stopped out.


Friday, December 21, 2012

Have Been Long DUST from 32, STP from 1.0

Sorry about the lack of updates.

Will sell DUST around 40.

Also long SCTY, STP.

Will try to go long TQQQ at around 50.5.

There is more upside in equities after pull back.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Sold FAZ, SPXU, Bought more NUGT

Made some change on the SPXU and FAZ, but really hurting on that NUGT.

Lesson learned.  When stocks really fall, GDX will fall too. Maybe it will fall worse.

Bought TQQQ at 44.9.  Will go more long at lower prices.

Update: NUGT average price is now 12.60.

I am waiting for a bounce to exit NUGT.  I will look to short GDX, probably at the 200 day.  Weekly middle BB is also resistance right around the 200DMA  Right now, there should be a nice bounce up to the 200 DMA.

Friday, November 9, 2012

Long FAZ, SPXU, NUGT

Will try to go long AGQ on Monday or Tuesday.

FAZ at 18.05

SPXU at 42.35

NUGT (from earlier) 14.8




Edit: lowered NUGT cost to 14.6.  Will probably lower FAZ and SPXU cost today.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Will short Financials on Bounce. Holding NUGT.


Average price on NUGT is 14.8 now.  This is my largest position.  Looking for 25 or so as final target.

Also long AGQ.

I am long TQQQ at 50.8 and 48.4.  Plan to sell around 51.5 - 52 range.

Looking to short financials via FAZ.

SPX going to 1300, after small bounce.


UPDATE: CHANGE OF MIND: Will get out of TQQQ tomorrow. QQQ going to 61.5 before bounce.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Sold SPXU at 39.98

SOX and RUT acting well.  RSP:SPY indicating strength in the indices. Might go long NDX tomorrow, via TQQQ.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Big Picture

In the big picture, I am bullish Gold Miners for the next couple of months.

I am bearish equities for the next few months.  I expect 1000-1100 on the SP 500.

Here is one important divergence:
http://tinyurl.com/cfnlcsu

Having said this, I am not going to stay short equities very much longer. I will cash out of my short sooner rather than later and wait for a bounce to short.

Also, when the market really falls, then I don't think Gold miners will survive.

I will be watching for this as $GDX nears old highs.

Update - Gold miners and SP

1. $SPXEW (or RSP) and $TRAN are suggesting more strength in the indices.

2 I think we make a lower low on the SP500 Monday or Tuesday, with positive breadth divergences.

3. This could be followed by a move to higher highs, possibly around 1500.

4. Subsequent to last update, I lowered NUGT cost to $14.8, and sold at 15.5 and at $16.25.

Now I legged back in at an average cost of $15.25 (full position).  Will try to lower cost to $14.9 or so.

I also sold SPXU at 40.5 and bought back at average cost of $38.65.  I plan to sell in the 42.5 - 43 zone.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Update

Long SPXU

Still long Chinese solars

Lightly long NUGT; looking to add very shortly

Stopped out of SOXL for a loss.

I think the bear market has started and that the target is around 1000 SPX.  First target around SPX 1390, possibly by October 29.

Good luck to all.

NUGT will be a good long around 14 to 15 range.  I will try to bring my average cost (right now 15.85) down.


Thursday, October 18, 2012

Long Now

I am lightly long Gold, SOX and Solars.  I expect to add longs tomorrow, on a little more downside.


Saturday, October 13, 2012

Have been Short GDX, SPX

Via NUGT and SPXU

Correction goes to about 615 AAPL, 1400 SPX, 50 GDX, 2675 NDX, 13200 Dow.

Then I will probably go long China (YINN), NUGT, and maybe NDX.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Getting bearish ST

Looking to short the RUT soon.  Maybe also the SPX/NDX.

Also getting ready to take on a big long position in GDX at around 50 or so.  Using NUGT around 14-14.5 range.

Confused


Sold off on a good job's report.  Normally that would be bearish.

Gap fully filled and more.  Again, normally bearish.

NDX falling like a rock, with negative divergence on RSI and MACD.  This cannot be bullish.

However, TNX looking bullish as is VIX (somewhat).

I think pullback continues for a little longer?

Big Tech earnings in mid October.  GOOG October 18; AAPL October 25.  ST Bottom around October 14-17?

But October 14 is new moon.

October 29 is full moon.

I am long as of mid-end last week (GMCR, TNA, FB, TSL), but will lighten up and may short NDX for a bit).

Chinese solars (TSL, YGE, STP) charts getting bullish.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Gold

Sorry about the lack of postings.

I have been long NUGT since the Fed came out with QE infinitum, but have taken profits recently.  As in other risk assets, I'm looking for perhaps a little more correction before a resumption of the uptrend.


More downside?

The NAS 100 has been trailing, and looking somewhat weak. She's been hugging the underside of the middle BB, but it looks like she's gonna fall away. Yesterday's intraday reversal might just have triggered that fall. Lower BB looks a likely target, but possible H&S target is somewhat lower. GOOG looks toppy here, and AAPL has a bearish chart projecting downside up to $620. Also VIX looks ready for a charge up to the 200 day. GL!

Saturday, September 15, 2012

SPX going to 1490-1500, before reaction; then to 1570


Buy every dip.

Will try to buy SPXL in the 92.4 to 95 zone.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Buying FB, NUGT, FSLR at 15 and change

Bought FB 18.3
NUGT 12.55

Not FSLR.  Maybe at 13 and change.

Friday, August 10, 2012

The Way I'm Playing Gold

GDX 49 or so by September 1.

Then a nice short when the Fed doesn't come through with QE.

This is a correctional wave up in GDX, after five waves down.

Monday, August 6, 2012

Bear Trapped!

I will close shorts and go long DUST within the next few days.

The only thing saving my behind a little over the past couple of days is that I went long a fairly large TSL position at 4.28.  

Looking for retests of recent breakouts in QQQ and SOX to close short positions.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Roadmap


I am quite sure that we will see lower lows before we see higher highs.  I plan to hold short at least until SPX hits the 200 DMA.  I will add to shorts on Monday, July 30.

The short-term technical condition of the market is very bad.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70080538802&a=225258859

However, on the other hand, we did see a very strong breadth in the July move up, and such strong breadth readings usually presages higher highs.  Long-term, this bull market is alive.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHL&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26393848542&a=270667283

So I think we see a lower low with positive breadth divergence, which will be a good time to load up on longs.

If the Fed doesn't come through immediately next Tuesday-Wednesday, that would set the stage for perhaps a precipitous drop. Such a drop would be a buying opportunity.

Added to SQQQ at 48.1, Stopped out of SOXL at 42.8

Will add to more shorts on Monday.

Bought 2 NUGT calls in fun account.

Looking to buy NUGT.

Will probably buy BGZ on Friday/Monday.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Late Trade Update; Targets

Sold NUGT at 8.25, at a loss.

Added to shorts yesterday - SQQQ at 48.5 and SOXS at 45.5.

ST Targets: 

EURUSD 1.16 to 1.18
USD Index 86-87
RUT 740
SPX 1280
AAPL 515

Fed meeting next week - bounce time! Fed will likely not announce QE but will indicate it in September.

According to the ECRI we are already in recession.  I believe it.  HGX is the last domino to fall, and fall it will.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Sold most Longs; Went short

Long TZA at 17.4

Long SOXS at 42

Also long a little TSL (will hold through earnings on Monday) and a little NUGT.

Will buy a little NOK soon.

Friday, July 13, 2012

Bought TNA at 50.5; Sold half

Sold Half TNA at 52.5 yesterday.  Will sell rest at around 55.5.  Also stopped out of half of SOXL.  Will soon sell longs and go short.


Wednesday, July 11, 2012

More downside ahead, after a little upside

Signals are confusing.


Positives
Breadth was strong on the recent move up, and so far there has been no breadth divergence.  This is the biggest problem for the bear thesis.

$BSE rocketing up on the daily.

$SSEC may be making a double bottom.  But more downside certainly possible.

SPX, TRAN, $COMP all at or close to 50-day support.  BUT all 50-days are downward sloping.  All 200 days are upward sloping and some distance below.  Short-term support here.

$HGX made new highs - BUT on possibly negative RSI divergence.

VIX declining, just hit declining 20 DMA. No base building on VIX.  MACD suggesting more downside on VIX, upside on equities.

Negatives


Weekly MACD on all indices very bearish.


TNX, TLT, WMT, and SOX proclaiming danger immediately ahead.
TNX suggesting at least a double bottom somewhat further below.  Big negative divergence between TNX and SPX is never good.

However, in end July TLT may make a double top with RSI divergence and TNX a double bottom.  

Hang Seng, SPX suggesting bearish wedge.  However, Hang Seng at 20 and 50-DMA support, with positive MACD divergence, suggesting bounce to 200 day is quite possible.  Also, possibly to 20000 before the wedge breaks.

Conclusions
1. Danger Ahead.  Will sell longs and go short (long BGZ, DUST) on bounce, especially if I see negative breadth divergence.  Top should come around mid-late mid July.

2. Look for double bottom on $TNX with RSI divergence to go long.  Should come in late July-mid August period?






Monday, July 9, 2012

Bought SOXL, TSL, NOK

SOXL 25.35

TSL 6.18.

Will probably try to buy more TSL around 5.95 tomorrow.

NOK 1.87 (small position)

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Looking for Higher Highs in the Indices

Within a week or 10 days.

Not sure about targets yet, but breath is strong and VIX needs to come down more before this move is done.

We will also see more downside this year.  TNX, TLT, SOX, all suggest this.

Friday, July 6, 2012

Sold NUGT, TNA, SOXL, AAPL calls yesterday, Tuesday

NUGT 12.15
TNA 58.3
SOXL ... ____
AAPL 610.5

Out of most longs.

Monday, July 2, 2012

bought NUGT at 10.73

Looking to buy more.

Also looking to buy TSL 6.45, SOXL at 28.

Friday, June 29, 2012

Will sell the news

Will sell much (not all) TNA around 54 and TSL around 6.50.

Will buy again next week.

Update:
Sold 65% TNA at 53.9.  

Thursday, June 28, 2012

HGX


1. MACD divergence across lows.
2. Over the past 1-2 months, drop in RSI while price stays constant.  This implies consolidation.
3. Back at the highs and RSI has room to run.

TNA; TSL

Bought TNA at 47.7; TSL at 5.97.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Getting Bullish ST (1-2 months)


This is the Hi bye guy again.

HGX break out coming.

IWM:SPY Inverse H and S.

Disregard previous post.

I'm running with tha bulls.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Getting Bearish

Will close longs and go short next week, perhaps by the end of the week.  Looking for higher highs first, though.

Looking to short RUT, XLF.

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Rosie Turns Bullish

http://pragcap.com/rosenberg-the-perma-bull

I will be exiting most long positions in the coming weeks/months and focusing on finding shorts.

I think 2013 will produce a nice, tradable bottom.

The bottom will likely come as a double bottom with divergence on weekly RSI.

I will work on coming up with a target, but I do not think it will be anywhere close to the 2009 bottom.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Update

Was on vacation for a week.

Will try to sell 50% of SOXL and TNA today.  Possibly also 50% of TSL.

After the Fed's announcement today, I am looking for a decline in risk assets to the end of the week.  Late today or tomorrow, I plan to start buying NUGT, hopefully in the low 12s.

NUGT will be a swing long. 

Friday, June 1, 2012

bought TNA at 43.4

AAPL; TSL

Bought AAPL June calls at AAPL 563; Sold TSL September calls one third position at TSL 6.6.

Sold TSL part position at 6.60.

AAPL may be ST hold.



Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Friday, May 18, 2012

Bought AAPL July calls; TNA calls at TNA 46.2

Will sell on a bounce.  Playing defense.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

IWM:SPY and RSP:SPY

http://scharts.co/IWCMjb

http://scharts.co/IWH3TJ

Many other charts showing strong breadth divergences.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Buying Opportunity of the Year

How can everyone not see this?  I know all the smart people do.  Chart below.

http://scharts.co/L1I7bw

Friday, May 4, 2012

A bit uncertain here


Very typically confusing Wave 4, this.  We've got a very scary looking inverse H&S on VIX. SOX (a kind of AWACs for me, now that TNX and TLT are broken) was very weak yesterday.  On the other hand, we also have some positive divergence on the 60 minute TNX chart (MACD).  
I know I said TNX was broken, but I mean that it is no longer a tell on the daily.  Because of the frequent bond buying by the Fed it is no longer possible to say whether a trend is arising because of fear in the market or the Fed's buying.  On the hourly, I still like to look at it.
AAPL also looks like it has a bullish IHS forming.
Finally, and significantly, there is positive breath divergence at the recent 1411 SPX high (with the earlier 1430 high).  Look at this $NYAD chart:  http://scharts.co/IL4YrY.  
I am swing long, but nervous.  This has been a tiresome Wave 4.  In future, I will try to just sit these out in my swing trading.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

May 10

By May 10, barring a natural disaster of some such event, my accounts will be up at least another 20% from current levels.  All trades have been posted here, and it is still possible to buy all my buys for good prices.

Edit: This was yesterday's post.  After the close yesterday, I'm still long (couldn't really trade intraday so had no choice), but a little more nervous.  Full moon this weekend suggests we might see a bottom today or Monday. 

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Bought TNA 57.24; SOXL 37.1, AAPL call 584

SOXL bought yesterday.  TNA bought today.

These are all swing trades.

Sold some TSL at 7.8 yesterday; Will buy more at 7.4 to 7.5 range.

Sold YGE at 3.8.  May buy more at lower prices.

Bought AAPL June 620 calls at AAPL 584.  first target 620; then 660.

Monday, April 30, 2012

sold SOXL at 36.9; bought FREE at 1.24

Looking to reduce FREE size a bit, perhaps at 1.42.

Looking to buy TNA around 58. 

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Long SOXL at 34.1, more FREE at 1.32

Trades were yesterday.  Too busy to post.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Out of FAZ

Small profit.

Long FREE, EDC, YINN, TSL, YGE.

Looking to buy more EDC, YINN, TNA.

We are in the early stages of a multi month up move.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/summation_index_promises_higher_highs_after_correction_ends/

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Playing Defense


Still holding TSL, YGE.

Sold TNA at small profit, EDC small loss, FSLR big loss.

Playing defense.  Saving $ to buy. 

Long FAZ calls for a quick buck.

Sold much of TNA

Will sell more today.

May get some more downside.  I don't think Wave 4 is over yet.

Still long EDC, DRYS, FREE, FSLR, TSL, YGE.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Why I'm long EDC (and will be longer)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC:$SPX&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p92645485225&a=241969919

Friday, April 13, 2012

Two Possibilities

There are two possibilities in my mind:

1) We go down another 3-5% in the indices and then go up for 3-6 months. 50% probability

2) We go straight up from Monday. 50% probability

I am invested for Option 2, but am saving a little dry powder in case of option 1.

Selling half TNA around 56

Sold around break even.

Will buy more lower, if we go lower.

Still long EDC, EEM calls, DRYS, TSL, FSLR.

Looking to go long FREE in the 1.30s.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Sold 75% of FREE @ 1.65. +55%

Will buy more in the 1.3 - 1.4 range.

Edit: Sold last 25% at 1.88.

Will buy more 1.33 or so.

Bought more DRYS, EDC.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Bought more TNA 53.7, FREE 1.01, EDC 95.7

Trying to reduce average cost of TNA; will trade position accordingly. May not post all buys and sells.

Solars jumping!

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

TNA

ST (1-5 day) roadmap for TNA
56 -49.5 - 60.

Trading

It seems that I am getting some readers, so I'd like to clarify my trading style.

I trade out of two accounts, long-term (swing) and short-term.

Because I cannot watch the markets on an intra-day basis, and because I am not always patient (something I am working on), in my long-term account, I tend to buy dips/sell rips rather aggressively, but in steps. (Buy dips in a bull and sell rips in a bear.)

For instance, I bought TNA at 60 at 53 and I plan to buy around 49.5 if it gets there. *I know* I will make money on this trade.

In my short-term account, I trade and scalp equities. This is when I can watch the market more closely.

My goal is to become a more accurate trader in the LT account as well. In this, I am working on more patience. This is the most important quality of a trader, and I need more of it. However, I recognize that I cannot be perfect, and I am not pursuing perfection.

Just FYI, my LT account (most trades are published here) is up about 35% in the past six months. It will be up at least 30% from its current level within the next 2 months, give or take.

If and when I have time, I will start a blog trading record, with $ amount of all trades.

Bought TNA 53.1

Monday, April 9, 2012

Longing to be longer

Wish I had more money so I could go more long. Not much more downside now.

Just one of my many charts saying, "Go long, son."

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT:$SPX&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p99231677792&a=246602289

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Bought TNA 60.07, TSL 6.55

Looking to buy more TSL (6.3) or FREE (1.01).

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Bottom tomorrow

Resurrection Monday.

Will try to buy TNA at 59 and change. DRYS at 3.18

Monday, April 2, 2012

Bought JCP at 35.01, YGE, more FSLR, TSL

JCP calls and stock. Will sell part position at 36. Holding much of it for target $47.

YGE 3.6 or so
FSLR stock 24.7
TSL calls 6.9

Saturday, March 31, 2012

Inverse ETFs

In my opinion, you should NOT use inverse ETFs to trade against the larger trend, even for short periods of time. It is too risky and too hard. Trading should be easier than that.

The exception is when the larger trend is at a crossroads or changing. Then you can make a few bucks by betting against the larger trend at extremes.

I have made a lot of money by using inverse ETFs. If I'm in a bull market, and I buy the dip (at support) with them, I will make money. Also vice versa.

It's all about reading the larger trend correctly. Right now, IMO, the intermediate-term (3-9 month) trend is long, the short-term trend (1-2 month) is uncertain and the the very short-term trend is uncertain (1 week). So I am looking to buy the dips for an intermediate term long.

Friday, March 30, 2012

Trade update

Bought dip (too early) TSL (target 9.4), FSLR (target 34.5 in 1-2 weeks)

Changed mind on GDX. Looking at going long GDX for a swing.

Also looking at INDL, EDC, FREE, DRYS, SLW, DUST.

LT Views

I am very confident that we are in a long term bull market and have been (mostly) trading accordingly for at least 6-8 months (thank god). Further confirmation came about a month ago with the very important break up in TNX and down in TLT.

I am not an EW-er but if i were, I would count us as in Wave 3 of 5 of a move that begun last October 1. Wave 1 ended December. Wave 5 is still to come, and will probably take us to 2007 highs. As you know, $COMP and $NDX have already confirmed that this is a bull market. $COMP, which is a 3000+ stock index, broke 2007 highs.

At some point there will be a Wave 4 (we might be in it) and at some point $COMP may retest 2007 highs, but in my very strong opinion, in this environment, any consistent swing trading strategy other than buy the dip is a losing proposition. As a good researcher and guinea pig, I have tested other strategies.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

GDX, TSL, FSLR

Looking at a possible short.

Bought dip (too early) TSL (target 9.4), FSLR (target 34.5 in 1-2 weeks)

Changed mind on GDX. Looking at going long GDX for a swing.

Also looking at INDL, EDC, FREE, DRYS.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Shorty shortz

Coming close to a possible tradeable top. 10-20 ES points from here. 1330-1340 ES. 2800 NDX. 760 TF. AAPL 680.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Trade Update

Out of all shorts. Sold SLW -- nice profits but a bit too soon. Still in NUGT for a few more points.

Bought FSLR @ 26.65 -- too soon. Will try to add at 25.2 or so.

Bought TSL at 7.95.

Will try to buy TNA on Monday.

My Views of Manipulation

"Manipulation" is a fact of life. The fed's policies in the past four years mirror its policies in the post WW2 era when they flooded the market with liquidity and kept rates down to help the economy recover. In the early 1950s, the Fed decided to let rates rise and stocks took off for a 20 year bull market. Such a move has started.

It is the Fed's job to intervene to provide liquidity in deflationary crises and to sap liquidity in inflationary times. That is in the Fed's charter, it is monetary policy, and it is reality. The fed has a dual mandate -- employment and inflation. And IMHO, over the past four years, in the face of extreme pressure, in spite of sometimes unhelpful fiscal policy, the Fed has done exactly what it should have.

And, IMHO, all Fed policy is reflected in charts. I, and many traders who have traded this rally more successfully than I, have been trading based on TA. Look at bluechipbulldog.blogspot.com for one example.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Shorty Shortz

I took partial profits but then shorted more TF, QQQ and FAZ. Will short more if it goes up. Will go long PMs (NUGT) soon.

Update: Closed most shorts. Long NUGT, SLW.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Switching short

IWM Puts; TZA 830-835 TF. Small position.

Update: Ouch. Will Add at 840-841.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Looking to buy the RUT

Soon. TNA will be my friend.

Bought TNA 61.6 and 60.8.

Targets

Staying long EDC, TQQQ until at least 119 and 115 respectively. Will sell FSLR, TSL around 30 and 8 respectively. This is Wave 5 of 3 of big bull.

Should take us up to 1440 on the ES. Air pocket. Inter market relationships change, but charts don't lie.

Monday, March 12, 2012

DUST, TQQQ, EDC, TSL, FSLR

Still long DUST, in the money quite a bit. Plan to stay short for another 10% at least.

still long TSL, small position.

Tomorrow and Wednesday, I plan to go in big long -- long FSLR, TQQQ and probably EDC.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Short Again

Lots of DUST

A few IWM puts

A little CTRP and TSL as hedges. Will likely exit these tomorrow.


Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Out of shorts; Long for a bounce

Small long -- DUST puts, QQQ calls, TSL, bought at lows. Some support here. Will take a quick buck and run.

Upcoming trades:

1. Will short miners, long FAZ again, probably by EOD tomorrow. Looking for XLF 14 in a week or so. That would be a great FAS long.

2. TF has strong support around 770- 778, SPX around 1330. Will look to go long IWM at those levels. Showing some signs of bottoming.

Update -
3. Also looking at DUST and DUST calls at around DUST 35.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Update

Bought BGZ at 22.22. Will wait and see, but I'm looking for 1340 ES right now. Might go long a couple of solars at that point. Miners are going down big time. Will add to DUST tomorrow on expected bounce in miners.

Still long FAZ and DUST. Watching FAZ carefully.

First target is 775 or so on RUT.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Week Ahead

I expect continued weakness in risk assets until at least March 8.

I plan to stay long DUST until at least $33.5 or so (but possibly much higher), and also stay long FAZ until at least $29.

$USD is going to 81.8.

I will watch the dollar closely for further clues on the metals and indices.

COMP will be a great buy at around 2900;

I am also planning on going long the solars around $25 on FSLR and $6.80 - 7 on TSL.


Thursday, February 23, 2012

ST Top Next Monday-Tuesday?

ST top may be coming. AAPL 530; SPX 1380 or so. Maybe next Monday-Tuesday. Max downside I see is 1320 SPX.

Correction SPX 1390 OR so.

EUR/USD is marching towards my target, which it should reach in the next few trading days. Also, AAPL will top at around 530, I think, and that is usually a top for the market. BKX has LT resistance in this area.

The problem with my thesis is that I'm still seeing breath in the market, so no sign of an intermediate term top -- these must be accompanied by serious divergences in NH. I'm seeing sector rotation -- some energy stocks are looking good now, at least for a few points.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Update

I think trading is very interesting this year and if we can get our heads out of the sand and look at charts in an unbiased manner, we can make a lot of money. Unfortunately, a majority of us will stay in the sand, so that the rest of us can make money. It's the nature of the game. Long AGQ, AG, TSL, JKS, MOBI, since Monday-Thursday. Sold MHR on Friday for a nice little gain. Will probably sell most longs this week and go long FAZ at 24 and change.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

FAZ

Yes FAZ.

Will buy FAZ at $24.3 or so.

Still long silver. Also bought some Chinese solars.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Update

I am very long silver. Also long MOBI. Was long Chinese solars until last week and am looking for a base in the chinese solars to get long again. SPX is going to 1365 at least, before a break, and quite possibly 1380. If it goes to 1380+, then quite possibly the break will only re-test the 1340-1350 zone, which will then be support.

$BSE is going to break 20K by this fall, if not sooner. This is a bull market. Buy the dip. Everyone is waiting for SPX 1300 to buy the dip, and I think they might just have to keep waiting. 2011 gave us a lot of dip buying opportunities, so people think 2012 will be the same. It's called recency bias. But I think not. GL!

Monday, February 13, 2012

Small Correction Coming

May buy a couple of IWM Puts tomorrow.

Did not buy puts.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Monday-Wednesday

MOBI around $4.7 (Monday?)

MHR around $6.1 (Monday?)

TSL around $9.5-10

JKS around $8.8 - 9.2

Already loaded up on AG and AGQ.

IWM puts around RUT 825, if possible

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Small Correction Coming

Should bottom around 808 on the TF. Correction -- 798 on TF.

May take a small short on Monday. IWM puts or FAZ calls would be a good way to make money. Buy Monday, Sell Wednesday?

TSL around 10, JKS around 8, MOBI 4.5, AG 18, AGQ 56, MHR 5.8 will be great buys.

Bigger correction around 1370-1380 SPX.

This is a bull market. We will reach over bought extremes, just as we reached oversold extremes in 2008-09. Many people (me included) bought the very oversold dips in 2008, looking for reversion to the mean. I still look for reversion to the mean, but only when I think we are range bound.

About a month ago (around ES 1270) I had pointed out that this was a bull, that it was dangerous to short it, that I may get short for a few points at 1320 but may not. Well, my impatient self chose to go short, and had to take a loss.

We will get a correction, but in a bull market, if our primary focus is going short, we will always lose money. After a dip (to 808 or so on /TF?), we should go up to the 840 TF range. Many stocks are targeting their 200 DMAs (from below) and will not stop until they hit them. And after that who knows? Many major central banks (including India's) are now in easing patterns. This easing may last another year, and this bull market as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see nominal all-time highs on the S&P by EOY 2012.

Saturday, February 4, 2012

SP going to 1380

EURO going to 1.36 by end of Feb.

Buy, buy, buy the FD.

Some sort of dip on Monday/Tuesday likely.

I am long PIP, MOBI, TSL (big position), FSLR (till 60). Looking to go more long on Tuesday, probably just BGU.

Maybe 1350 Monday morning - 1325 Tuesday/Wednesday - 1380 by Feb 28.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

TSL, TZA

TSL going a little south in the short-term. $7 - 7.50 or so.

TZA tops at /TF 811 or 812 tomorrow. Will try to buy TZA 19.6 or so.

Will sell some TSL, hopefully around 8 tomorrow.

Will re buy TSL at 7.


Friday, January 27, 2012

Consolidation now; Intermediate top at 1370 feb 20 or March 4?

Why correction/consolidation now - well, we are over bought on the daily RSI with negative divergences on hourly RSI and MACD, there is a full moon coming up, and we are at or very close to significant resistance. 800 and then 820 is significant resistance on the RUT. On the SPX 1330 and 1340.

Why 1370. Well 1370 is a very significant prior intermediate top. 1374 is also the completion of an Inverse H and S. At 1374, the SPX would also complete a move that is exactly the same length as the October - November move (possibly Wave A of an A B C correction). The last statement does not mean I'm an EW-er. I'm not, but I respect the basic principles.

Any way, that and a few other individual equity charts I'm looking at. Correction/consolidation close. Intermediate-term top, no. Breadth is too strong for that at this point.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

buy List

AG at 19 - target 24

TSL at 7.50 to 8 - target 14.


Lessons Learned

ST Top will come today around ES 1328, TF 800.

Lessons:

1. I learned again that the way to go short is via TZA and/or future month puts. 90% of my short is via TZA, bought at an average of TF 784. I have zero worries about that.

10% of my short is via Feb puts, average TF 776. I am probably going to lose money on that, even though TF will be at 760 by Feb 8. And I am scared about that. Oh well. LIve and learn.

You can ignore good practices -- meditating, exercise, buying future month options -- for a short while and make money, but eventually you will lose.

2. It is not possible to make money off every move. Sometimes, you just need to chill out. Yes, you could have made money if you were in the market. But you may have lost money as well.

My biggest problem is that I make a few trades that lose big. If I didn't make these, my results would be 100-200% annualized, rather than 50% percent annualized.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Targets

First target is about 784 /TF. I have been long AGQ and GOOG and will try to buy TNA at /TF 764 or so.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

2011

2011
Just checked 2011 trading - total profits 33% of account value.

July 1 to December 31 2011 (included Master Key period) - total profits 68% of account.

All these were made with no options and no margin. Strict directional trading on an IRA.

Closed most shorts on Monday - Long Now;

Long AGQ now at 48.89 (paid too much; will try to reduce cost basis by adding more). Targeting 61.

Long TSL (at 6.91) - small position. Target 8.38 first.

Long GOOG at 618 (bull call spread). Targeting 643.

Still Short AAPL

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Short

Short Silver via ZSL at 14.25.

Short QQQ via puts at 57.5 - will cover at 56.5 or so.

Short GOOG via puts at 662 will cover at 640-645.

Short AAPL via puts at 418 - Will cover 400-405.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Roadmap

Jan 4
AAPL
sell 418 (Tuesday) buy 395 (Friday-Monday) - sell 480 (by Feb)

SPX sell 1290 (Tuesday)- buy 1260 (Friday-Monday) - sell 1360 (by Feb)

SILVER sell 30-31 - buy 28.5 - sell 34 (by Feb).

GOLD sell 1620 (Tuesday) - buy 1580 (Friday-Monday) - sell 1680 (by Feb)

Buy list
AG buy at 17
AGQ buy 45.3
GOOG 635
AAPL 395

Bonds rates dropping; Stocks Rising

Predicting QE 3.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

GOOG morning. Would you like an AAPL? (Part 2)

Two charts:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p80692211972&a=252396788

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p62059694909&a=252396628

1) TLT shows negative RSI divergence across the recent tops. This often presages a downside break and I think it will this time as well.

2) Goog shows potential of a big upside break from a long time range, with a possible LT Head and Shoulders. With the right catalyst, this guy could rock to 800 in 2 months. AAPL has also been in a range for a while and if it breaks the range, it could rock to 480 very soon.

Combining the two suggests that we are in for a big move up in equities. I think we will see a low around Jan 10-14, which I plan to use to load up long equities.

The problem with buying GOOG and AAPL calls is that they are hugely earnings dependent. Nevertheless, I plan to buy some March or probably May calls and load up on TQQQ and TSL. I will probably sell most (maybe all) calls right before earnings around Jan 18-20, when the earnings pump (also called IV - Inflated Volatility) will have inflated their value.