Consolidation now; Intermediate top at 1370 feb 20 or March 4?

Why correction/consolidation now - well, we are over bought on the daily RSI with negative divergences on hourly RSI and MACD, there is a full moon coming up, and we are at or very close to significant resistance. 800 and then 820 is significant resistance on the RUT. On the SPX 1330 and 1340.

Why 1370. Well 1370 is a very significant prior intermediate top. 1374 is also the completion of an Inverse H and S. At 1374, the SPX would also complete a move that is exactly the same length as the October - November move (possibly Wave A of an A B C correction). The last statement does not mean I'm an EW-er. I'm not, but I respect the basic principles.

Any way, that and a few other individual equity charts I'm looking at. Correction/consolidation close. Intermediate-term top, no. Breadth is too strong for that at this point.

buy List

AG at 19 - target 24

TSL at 7.50 to 8 - target 14.

Lessons Learned

ST Top will come today around ES 1328, TF 800.

Lessons:

1. I learned again that the way to go short is via TZA and/or future month puts. 90% of my short is via TZA, bought at an average of TF 784. I have zero worries about that.

10% of my short is via Feb puts, average TF 776. I am probably going to lose money on that, even though TF will be at 760 by Feb 8. And I am scared about that. Oh well. LIve and learn.

You can ignore good practices -- meditating, exercise, buying future month options -- for a short while and make money, but eventually you will lose.

2. It is not possible to make money off every move. Sometimes, you just need to chill out. Yes, you could have made money if you were in the market. But you may have lost money as well.

My biggest problem is that I make a few trades that lose big. If I didn't make these, my results would be 100-200% annualized, rather than 50% percent annualized.

Targets

First target is about 784 /TF. I have been long AGQ and GOOG and will try to buy TNA at /TF 764 or so.

2011

2011

Just checked 2011 trading - total profits 33% of account value.

July 1 to December 31 2011 (included Master Key period) - total profits 68% of account.

All these were made with no options and no margin. Strict directional trading on an IRA.

Closed most shorts on Monday - Long Now;

Long AGQ now at 48.89 (paid too much; will try to reduce cost basis by adding more). Targeting 61.

Long TSL (at 6.91) - small position. Target 8.38 first.

Long GOOG at 618 (bull call spread). Targeting 643.

Still Short AAPL

Short

Short Silver via ZSL at 14.25.

Short QQQ via puts at 57.5 - will cover at 56.5 or so.

Short GOOG via puts at 662 will cover at 640-645.

Short AAPL via puts at 418 - Will cover 400-405.

Roadmap

Jan 4

AAPL

sell 418 (Tuesday) buy 395 (Friday-Monday) - sell 480 (by Feb)

SPX sell 1290 (Tuesday)- buy 1260 (Friday-Monday) - sell 1360 (by Feb)

SILVER sell 30-31 - buy 28.5 - sell 34 (by Feb).

GOLD sell 1620 (Tuesday) - buy 1580 (Friday-Monday) - sell 1680 (by Feb)

Buy list

AG buy at 17

AGQ buy 45.3

GOOG 635

AAPL 395

Bonds rates dropping; Stocks Rising

Predicting QE 3.

GOOG morning. Would you like an AAPL? (Part 2)

Two charts:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p80692211972&a=252396788

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p62059694909&a=252396628

1) TLT shows negative RSI divergence across the recent tops. This often presages a downside break and I think it will this time as well.

2) Goog shows potential of a big upside break from a long time range, with a possible LT Head and Shoulders. With the right catalyst, this guy could rock to 800 in 2 months. AAPL has also been in a range for a while and if it breaks the range, it could rock to 480 very soon.

Combining the two suggests that we are in for a big move up in equities. I think we will see a low around Jan 10-14, which I plan to use to load up long equities.

The problem with buying GOOG and AAPL calls is that they are hugely earnings dependent. Nevertheless, I plan to buy some March or probably May calls and load up on TQQQ and TSL. I will probably sell most (maybe all) calls right before earnings around Jan 18-20, when the earnings pump (also called IV - Inflated Volatility) will have inflated their value.