Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Friday, October 19, 2012

Update

Long SPXU

Still long Chinese solars

Lightly long NUGT; looking to add very shortly

Stopped out of SOXL for a loss.

I think the bear market has started and that the target is around 1000 SPX.  First target around SPX 1390, possibly by October 29.

Good luck to all.

NUGT will be a good long around 14 to 15 range.  I will try to bring my average cost (right now 15.85) down.


Thursday, October 18, 2012

Long Now

I am lightly long Gold, SOX and Solars.  I expect to add longs tomorrow, on a little more downside.


Saturday, October 13, 2012

Have been Short GDX, SPX

Via NUGT and SPXU

Correction goes to about 615 AAPL, 1400 SPX, 50 GDX, 2675 NDX, 13200 Dow.

Then I will probably go long China (YINN), NUGT, and maybe NDX.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Getting bearish ST

Looking to short the RUT soon.  Maybe also the SPX/NDX.

Also getting ready to take on a big long position in GDX at around 50 or so.  Using NUGT around 14-14.5 range.

Confused


Sold off on a good job's report.  Normally that would be bearish.

Gap fully filled and more.  Again, normally bearish.

NDX falling like a rock, with negative divergence on RSI and MACD.  This cannot be bullish.

However, TNX looking bullish as is VIX (somewhat).

I think pullback continues for a little longer?

Big Tech earnings in mid October.  GOOG October 18; AAPL October 25.  ST Bottom around October 14-17?

But October 14 is new moon.

October 29 is full moon.

I am long as of mid-end last week (GMCR, TNA, FB, TSL), but will lighten up and may short NDX for a bit).

Chinese solars (TSL, YGE, STP) charts getting bullish.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Gold

Sorry about the lack of postings.

I have been long NUGT since the Fed came out with QE infinitum, but have taken profits recently.  As in other risk assets, I'm looking for perhaps a little more correction before a resumption of the uptrend.


More downside?

The NAS 100 has been trailing, and looking somewhat weak. She's been hugging the underside of the middle BB, but it looks like she's gonna fall away. Yesterday's intraday reversal might just have triggered that fall. Lower BB looks a likely target, but possible H&S target is somewhat lower. GOOG looks toppy here, and AAPL has a bearish chart projecting downside up to $620. Also VIX looks ready for a charge up to the 200 day. GL!