Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Sold FAZ, SPXU, Bought more NUGT

Made some change on the SPXU and FAZ, but really hurting on that NUGT.

Lesson learned.  When stocks really fall, GDX will fall too. Maybe it will fall worse.

Bought TQQQ at 44.9.  Will go more long at lower prices.

Update: NUGT average price is now 12.60.

I am waiting for a bounce to exit NUGT.  I will look to short GDX, probably at the 200 day.  Weekly middle BB is also resistance right around the 200DMA  Right now, there should be a nice bounce up to the 200 DMA.

Friday, November 9, 2012

Long FAZ, SPXU, NUGT

Will try to go long AGQ on Monday or Tuesday.

FAZ at 18.05

SPXU at 42.35

NUGT (from earlier) 14.8




Edit: lowered NUGT cost to 14.6.  Will probably lower FAZ and SPXU cost today.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Will short Financials on Bounce. Holding NUGT.


Average price on NUGT is 14.8 now.  This is my largest position.  Looking for 25 or so as final target.

Also long AGQ.

I am long TQQQ at 50.8 and 48.4.  Plan to sell around 51.5 - 52 range.

Looking to short financials via FAZ.

SPX going to 1300, after small bounce.


UPDATE: CHANGE OF MIND: Will get out of TQQQ tomorrow. QQQ going to 61.5 before bounce.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Sold SPXU at 39.98

SOX and RUT acting well.  RSP:SPY indicating strength in the indices. Might go long NDX tomorrow, via TQQQ.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Big Picture

In the big picture, I am bullish Gold Miners for the next couple of months.

I am bearish equities for the next few months.  I expect 1000-1100 on the SP 500.

Here is one important divergence:
http://tinyurl.com/cfnlcsu

Having said this, I am not going to stay short equities very much longer. I will cash out of my short sooner rather than later and wait for a bounce to short.

Also, when the market really falls, then I don't think Gold miners will survive.

I will be watching for this as $GDX nears old highs.

Update - Gold miners and SP

1. $SPXEW (or RSP) and $TRAN are suggesting more strength in the indices.

2 I think we make a lower low on the SP500 Monday or Tuesday, with positive breadth divergences.

3. This could be followed by a move to higher highs, possibly around 1500.

4. Subsequent to last update, I lowered NUGT cost to $14.8, and sold at 15.5 and at $16.25.

Now I legged back in at an average cost of $15.25 (full position).  Will try to lower cost to $14.9 or so.

I also sold SPXU at 40.5 and bought back at average cost of $38.65.  I plan to sell in the 42.5 - 43 zone.