Lessons

1. If VIX is under 26, buy the dip. If VIX is over 26, sell the rip.

2. Always trade in the direction of the larger trend. Find the strongest trend in your time period.

3. Nothing as bearish as a failed breakout. Nothing as bullish as a failed break down.

4. Don't worry about the last dollar. Take your money and go to the beach!

5. No more than four positions at a time. Preferably 2-4. Scope out others. Pick the strongest.

6. Buy the strongest; sell (short) the weakest.

7. Nothing is guaranteed. Nothing.

Monday, January 21, 2013

LT view

The SPX is in the beginning stages of a medium-term advance.

I know this must sound totally weird, as many people think that we are toward the end of long bull market advance, that began in March 2009.

However, the breadth readings we are seeing in this advance, the fact that international markets are soaring with us (the DAX, FXI and BSE) now suggest that this advance is for real, and will, in the medium-term (6 months) probably lead to all-time highs in many markets. The RUT has already hit all time highs.

The Dow should hit 14700 and the SPX 1590 or so.

Having said that, in the short term, this advance needs a correction.

I am lightly short equities (with SOX) and long PMs (NUGT).  I will also try to short via FAZ tomorrow.  I am looking for a drop, ideally to around 1430 SPX to go long again. Hopefully we won't go lower than that.

I am also looking for a small correction to go long Silver via AGQ. This would be an intermediate term long, based upon a bull flag on the MONTHLY chart.

Happy new year!

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